About this data
Civic Balance models the relationship between direct government benefits received and taxes paid across all 50 U.S. states and 3,141 counties. All values are annual per-adult (18+) averages spread across the entire adult population—not just program participants.
State-level benefit data comes from federal program reports (FY/CY 2023). Tax data comes from IRS and Tax Foundation compilations (FY/TY 2022). County-level estimates are modeled from state data using real Census ACS 5-Year 2023 demographics and program participation rates.
These figures are structured estimates suitable for geographic comparison and policy exploration. They are not individual-level predictions. General public spending (defense, infrastructure, broad public goods) is intentionally excluded to focus on direct transfers and tax burdens.
Benefit Metrics
Direct government benefits compiled from federal program reports. Each value represents the total program spending in a state divided by its adult population (18+).
| Metric | Format | Source | Calculation | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Medicaid / Medi-Cal value medicaid | USD | MACPAC Exhibit 23, FY 2023 | Total Medicaid spending per state ÷ adult population (18+). Per-enrollee spending by state scaled to per-adult averages. | Federal share (~60%) and state share (~40%) are split when computing federal vs. state/local recipient shares. Can be toggled off via filters. |
SNAP / food assistance snap | USD | USDA FNS State Activity Report, FY 2023 | Total SNAP benefits issued per state ÷ adult population (18+). | 100% federally funded. County estimates scaled by Census ACS SNAP receipt rate (table B22003). |
Housing assistance housing | USD | HUD Picture of Subsidized Households + Urban Institute, FY 2023 | Total housing subsidy value per state ÷ adult population (18+). Includes Section 8 vouchers, public housing, and project-based rental assistance. | County estimates adjust for urbanization factor (higher in urban areas). Can be toggled off via filters. |
Cash welfare / TANF-type aid cashWelfare | USD | ACF TANF Financial Data, FY 2023 | Total TANF cash assistance per state ÷ adult population (18+). | Split 50/50 between federal and state/local when computing level-specific shares. County estimates scaled by poverty rate. |
SSI / disability-related cash aid ssi | USD | SSA Annual Statistical Supplement Table 7.B1, CY 2023 | Total SSI payments per state ÷ adult population (18+). | 100% federal. County estimates scaled by Census ACS SSI income rate (table B19056). |
Education subsidies education | USD | NCES Digest of Education Statistics + Census State Government Finances, FY 2023 | State and federal education expenditures (higher ed subsidies, Pell Grants, state appropriations) ÷ adult population (18+). | Classified as state/local benefit. County estimates lightly adjust by income ratio. Can be toggled off via filters. |
ACA subsidy value aca | USD | CMS Effectuated Enrollment Report, CY 2023 Table 6 | Total ACA premium tax credits + cost-sharing reductions per state ÷ adult population (18+). | 100% federal. County estimates scaled by the general benefit factor (income and poverty adjusted). |
Other direct benefits other | USD | Composite of smaller federal/state programs | Residual direct benefits (WIC, LIHEAP, school meals, other means-tested programs) aggregated per state ÷ adult population (18+). | Split 40% federal / 60% state/local. Scaled by state benefits toggle. |
Tax Metrics
Tax collections compiled from IRS Statistics of Income and Tax Foundation data. Each value represents the total tax revenue attributed to state residents divided by adult population (18+).
| Metric | Format | Source | Calculation | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Federal income tax federalIncome | USD | IRS SOI Historic Table 2, Tax Year 2022 | Total federal income tax collected from state filers ÷ adult population (18+). | Classified as federal tax. County estimates scaled by income ratio (county median ÷ state median household income). |
Payroll tax payroll | USD | IRS SOI / National Priorities Project per-state averages | Estimated FICA (Social Security + Medicare) contributions per state ÷ adult population (18+). | Classified as federal tax. Includes both employee and employer shares attributed to residents. |
State income tax stateIncome | USD | Tax Foundation Facts & Figures 2025, FY 2022 | State income tax revenue per state ÷ adult population (18+). | Classified as state/local tax. Zero for states without income tax (TX, FL, WA, etc.). |
Sales tax estimate sales | USD | Tax Foundation Facts & Figures 2025, FY 2022 | State + local sales tax revenue per state ÷ adult population (18+). | County estimates adjusted for urbanization (higher in urban areas). Can be excluded via the local taxes toggle. |
Property tax estimate property | USD | Tax Foundation Facts & Figures 2025, FY 2022 | Total property tax revenue per state ÷ adult population (18+). | County estimates scaled by income ratio × urbanization factor. Can be excluded via the local taxes toggle. |
Other state/local taxes otherLocal | USD | Tax Foundation Facts & Figures 2025, FY 2022 | Residual state and local tax burden (excise, business, license fees) per state ÷ adult population (18+). | Can be excluded via the local taxes toggle. |
Income Metrics
Income data from IRS SOI (AGI, wages, effective rates) and Census ACS (per capita income). These provide context for the tax data and enable effective tax rate calculations.
| Metric | Format | Source | Calculation | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Mean AGI per tax return meanAGIPerReturn | USD | IRS SOI Historic Table 2 + County Data, Tax Year 2022 | Total Adjusted Gross Income in state ÷ number of individual income tax returns filed. | AGI includes wages, investment income, retirement income, and business income, minus above-the-line deductions. Counties now use IRS county aggregates directly where available; metros aggregate county IRS inputs across CBSA counties. |
Per capita income perCapitaIncome | USD | Census ACS 5-Year 2023, Table B19301 | Aggregate income in geography ÷ total population (all ages). Inflation-adjusted to 2023 dollars. | Broader than AGI—includes non-taxable income. Available at both state and county level. |
Effective federal income tax rate effectiveFederalRate | % | IRS SOI Historic Table 2 + County Data, Tax Year 2022 | Total federal income tax liability ÷ total AGI for the state. | Excludes payroll taxes. County values use IRS county aggregates where available; metro values aggregate the county IRS file using official CBSA county membership. |
Effective total tax rate effectiveTotalRate | % | Computed from IRS SOI + Tax Foundation | Combined taxes paid (federal + state + local, per adult) ÷ estimated AGI per adult (AGI × 0.92 adjustment for per-adult vs. per-return). | Approximate total burden including federal income, payroll, state income, sales, property, and other local taxes. |
Derived & Composite Metrics
Calculated from the base benefit and tax values above. These include totals, net positions, and modeled share estimates.
| Metric | Format | Source | Calculation | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Total direct benefits directBenefits | USD | Computed | Sum of all included benefit lines: Medicaid + SNAP + Housing + Cash welfare + SSI + Education + ACA + Other. Lines toggled off in filters are zeroed. | — |
Estimated taxes paid taxesPaid | USD | Computed | Sum of all included tax lines: Federal income + Payroll + State income + Sales + Property + Other local. Local taxes can be excluded via filters. | — |
Net fiscal position netFiscalPosition | USD | Computed | Total direct benefits − Estimated taxes paid. Positive values indicate the average adult receives more in direct benefits than they pay in taxes. | This is a cohort-wide average, not a headcount share. It can be negative even when a majority are modeled as net recipients if the payer minority has larger negative balances. |
Net recipient share (overall) recipientShare | % | Modeled | balanceRatio = (benefits − taxes) / max(benefits + taxes, 1). raw = 0.53 + balanceRatio × 0.4 + shareBias. Clamped to [0.18, 0.78]. | This is a headcount share, not a dollar share. It can coexist with a negative average net fiscal position when the payer minority has larger negative balances. shareBias adjusts for cohort, income band, and year. The 0.53 baseline reflects national average recipient rates from CBO and Census SPM data. |
Net payer share (overall) payerShare | % | Modeled | 1 − recipientShare. | This is the complementary headcount share, not a share of taxes paid or dollars contributed. |
Federal net recipient share federalRecipientShare | % | Modeled | Same formula as overall but using federal-only splits: federalBenefits = Medicaid×0.6 + SNAP + SSI + ACA + Cash welfare×0.5 + Other×0.4. federalTaxes = Federal income + Payroll. | — |
State & local net recipient share stateLocalRecipientShare | % | Modeled | Same formula using state/local splits: stateLocalBenefits = Medicaid×0.4 + Education + Housing + Cash welfare×0.5 + Other×0.6. stateLocalTaxes = State income + Sales + Property + Other local. | — |
Combined direct benefits combinedBenefits | USD | Computed | Alias for Total direct benefits. Same value. | — |
Federal taxes federalTaxes | USD | Computed | Federal income tax + Payroll tax. | — |
State taxes stateTaxes | USD | Computed | State income tax only. | — |
Local tax estimate localTaxes | USD | Computed | Sales tax + Property tax + Other state/local taxes. | — |
Combined tax burden combinedTaxes | USD | Computed | Alias for Estimated taxes paid. Same value. | — |
County Estimation Methodology
County-level fiscal values are estimated by adjusting state-level data using real Census ACS demographics and program participation rates for each of the 3,141 counties.
| Scaling Factor | Formula | Applied To |
|---|---|---|
incomeRatio | county median income ÷ state median income | Scales tax burden and education subsidies |
snapFactor | county SNAP rate ÷ state avg SNAP rate | Scales SNAP benefits (clamped 0.3–2.5×) |
ssiFactor | county SSI rate ÷ state avg SSI rate | Scales SSI benefits (clamped 0.3–2.5×) |
medicaidFactor | county Medicaid rate ÷ state avg Medicaid rate | Scales Medicaid benefits (clamped 0.3–2.5×) |
povertyFactor | county poverty rate ÷ state avg poverty rate | Scales cash welfare (clamped 0.5–2.0×) |
benefitFactor | 1 + (1 − incomeRatio) × 0.4 + (povertyDelta) × 2.0 | General scaling for programs without direct participation data (clamped 0.5–1.8×) |
taxFactor | incomeRatio × 0.75 + 0.25 | Scales all tax lines proportionally to income (clamped 0.4–2.0×) |
urbanFactor | County urbanization rate (0–1) | Adjusts housing costs, sales tax, and property tax |
All factors are clamped to prevent extreme outliers from producing unrealistic estimates. The base state-level value for each line item is multiplied by its corresponding factor to produce the county estimate.
Filter Adjustments
When filters are applied (cohort, income band, demographics, policy year), multiplicative adjustments are applied to benefit and tax values. These approximate the differential fiscal profiles of subpopulations.
| Filter Setting | Effect on Values |
|---|---|
| Unit: Households | All values × 1.62 (avg adults per household) |
| Cohort: With children | Benefits × 1.28, Taxes × 0.96, Share bias +0.08 |
| Cohort: Without children | Benefits × 0.84, Taxes × 1.05, Share bias −0.03 |
| Cohort: Students | Benefits × 1.12, Taxes × 0.82, Share bias +0.04 |
| Cohort: Seniors | Benefits × 1.24, Taxes × 0.74, Share bias +0.07 |
| Cohort: Disability-linked | Benefits × 1.38, Taxes × 0.68, Share bias +0.10 |
| Income: Under $30k | Benefits × 1.36, Taxes × 0.58, Share bias +0.09 |
| Income: $30k–$60k | Benefits × 1.12, Taxes × 0.82, Share bias +0.03 |
| Income: $60k–$100k | Benefits × 0.92, Taxes × 1.08, Share bias −0.02 |
| Income: $100k+ | Benefits × 0.74, Taxes × 1.36, Share bias −0.08 |
| Has children: Yes | Benefits × 1.12, Taxes × 0.97 |
| Student: Yes | Benefits × 1.06, Taxes × 0.90 |
| Disability: Yes | Benefits × 1.10, Taxes × 0.88 |
| Married | Taxes × 1.05 |
| Single | Taxes × 0.98 |
| Policy year ≠ 2024 | Benefits grow at 2.4%/yr, Taxes grow at 2.1%/yr, Share bias shifts +0.4%/yr |
Filter effects are multiplicative and stack. For example, selecting "Seniors" + "Under $30k" applies both cohort and income adjustments to benefits and taxes.
Program toggles (Medicaid, Housing, Education, State benefits, Local taxes) zero out the corresponding line items rather than applying a multiplier.
Census ACS Tables Used
County-level demographic and program data comes from the Census Bureau American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates, 2023 (api.census.gov/data/2023/acs/acs5).
| Table | Description | Usage in Civic Balance |
|---|---|---|
B01003 | Total Population | County total population |
DP05_0021 | Population 18+ | County adult population for per-adult calculations |
B11001 | Household Type | County household count |
B19013 | Median Household Income | Income ratio for county scaling |
B17001 | Poverty Status | County poverty rate for benefit scaling |
B22003 | SNAP Receipt | County SNAP participation rate |
B19056 | SSI Income | County SSI receipt rate |
B19057 | Public Assistance Income | County public assistance rate |
S2704 | Health Insurance (Medicaid) | County Medicaid/means-tested coverage rate |
S1810 | Disability Characteristics | County disability rate |
B19001 | Household Income Distribution | State-level income band breakdowns |
B19301 | Per Capita Income | County and state per capita income levels |
Trend & Year-Over-Year Adjustments
Multi-year data enables trend visualization across policy years 2021–2025.
Data source
Census ACS 5-Year data for 2019–2023, mapped to policy years 2021–2025. Each year includes population, households, median household income, poverty rate, SNAP rate, and SSI rate per state.
Trend adjustment
For state-level trends, real year-over-year income and poverty shifts from Census data are applied: recipient share adjusts by 30% of the poverty rate change, and net fiscal position scales inversely with income growth. This produces realistic trend lines grounded in actual economic changes.
Year growth factors
When the policy year differs from the base year (2024), benefits grow at approximately 2.4% per year and taxes at 2.1% per year, reflecting historical growth differentials between transfer programs and tax revenue.
Rankings & Percentiles
How geographic rankings are computed for the selected metric.
State rankings
All 50 states are sorted by the selected metric value (descending). Rank = position in sorted order. Percentile = 1 − (rank − 1) / total states, clamped to [0.01, 0.99].
County rankings
Counties are ranked against all 50 state values for context. The number of states with a higher metric value determines the rank (rank = betterCount + 1). This allows cross-level comparisons between a county and state benchmarks.
Comparisons
How comparison benchmarks are generated for the detail panel.
Automatic benchmarks
Every selected geography is compared to the U.S. national average. States also get a regional peer average (Northeast, Midwest, South, or West). Counties are additionally compared to their parent state average.
Manual comparison
When compare mode is enabled, the user can select a second geography. Its metric value is added as an additional comparison row, with the delta (selected − comparison) displayed.