Civic Balance

National summary

United States

Modeled national benchmark

Net recipient share

37.5%

Net payer share

62.5%

Average direct benefits

$6,881

Average taxes paid

$15,925

Estimated net fiscal position

-$9,043

Modeled population

263.6M

Subgroup details

Headcount share and average dollars measure different things. This section shows the weighted-average tradeoffs required for both cards to be true at once; it does not claim observed person-level balances.

Estimated net recipients

99M adults

37.5% of modeled adults are estimated to receive more in direct benefits than they pay in taxes.

Estimated net payers

164.7M adults

62.5% of modeled adults are estimated to pay more in taxes than they receive in direct benefits.

Weighted-average equation

37.5% × recipient avg surplus - 62.5% × payer avg deficit = -$9,043

Because the cohort average is negative, the payer group must carry larger net deficits than the recipient group carries surpluses.

Minimum avg payer deficit

$14,478

This is the floor required to keep the cohort average negative if recipients are only barely net positive.

Each +$1k recipient surplus requires

$601

Extra average surplus on the recipient side must be offset by even larger average deficits on the payer side.

Illustrative scenarios

If net recipients average $1,000 more in benefits than taxes,

net payers must average $15,079 more in taxes than benefits.

If net recipients average $3,000 more in benefits than taxes,

net payers must average $16,281 more in taxes than benefits.

If net recipients average $5,000 more in benefits than taxes,

net payers must average $17,483 more in taxes than benefits.

Estimate ranges

These show the expected spread around the modeled averages. National ranges are tighter; county ranges are wider.

±4% margin

Direct benefits

Estimate

$6,881

95% range

$6,606 to $7,157

Taxes paid

Estimate

$15,925

95% range

$15,288 to $16,562

Net position

Estimate

-$9,043

95% range

-$9,405 to -$8,682

Income & Effective Rates

Mean AGI per return

$92,468

Per capita income

$43,459

Eff. federal tax rate

14.3%

Eff. total tax rate

18.7%

Federal vs. State & Local

Federal recipient share

30.5%

Federal payer share

69.5%

State & local recipient share

50.2%

State & local payer share

49.8%

State rankings

Top and bottom states for net recipient share (overall) under the current filter set.

Top 10 states

1. Puerto Rico62%

2. West Virginia46.8%

3. New Mexico46.4%

4. Alaska45.7%

5. Kentucky44.8%

6. Vermont44.3%

7. Arkansas43.6%

8. Mississippi43%

9. Louisiana42.3%

10. Maine42.2%

Bottom 10 states

1. Florida33.2%

2. Wyoming33.3%

3. Utah33.5%

4. Virginia34.5%

5. Texas34.6%

6. Colorado34.7%

7. Connecticut34.8%

8. New Jersey35%

9. New Hampshire35.3%

10. Washington35.3%

Benefit breakdown

Direct-transfer components shown separately from general public spending.

Medicaid

$3,207

SNAP

$404

Housing

$347

Cash welfare

$100

SSI

$208

Education

$2,002

ACA subsidy

$353

CHIP

$85

WIC

$45

LIHEAP

$18

Pell

$94

Other

$16

Tax breakdown

Federal, state, and local burdens modeled independently.

Federal income tax

$7,655

Payroll tax

$3,892

State income tax

$1,381

Sales tax

$1,147

Property tax

$1,422

Other local taxes

$427

Net position and trend

Directional balance plus modeled movement across policy years.

More taxes than benefitsMore benefits than taxes

-$9,043

202135.7%

202236.2%

202336.6%

202437.1%

202537.5%

Comparison section

Against the U.S. benchmark, regional peers, and an optional pinned comparator.

United States37.5%

U.S. average37.5%

Supplemental benefits

Major federal programs beyond means-tested benefits, shown per adult.

Social Security

$4,958

Medicare

$3,290

VA benefits

$1,178

EITC

$276

CTC

$133

Total with supplemental

$16,716

Net incl. SS/Medicare/VA

$792

Federal contracts & grants

$7,240

Supplemental total

$9,835

Economic context

Labor market, cost-of-living, and BEA-style federal presence (approximate).

Regional price parity

100.0

Unemployment rate

3.6%

Labor force participation

62.6%

Gini coefficient

0.488

Federal civilian jobs (per 1k adults)

38.0

Federal payroll comp. / adult

$3,076

Tax incidence (modeled)

ITEP/TPC-style state+local effective rates by income quintile and a regressivity index (0 = progressive, 1 = regressive).

Regressivity index

47.8%

Bottom quintile eff. tax rate

10.3%

Top quintile eff. tax rate

8.6%

Health & wellbeing

Population health and insurance coverage indicators.

Uninsured rate

7.9%

Medicaid expansion

Mixed metro

Life expectancy

77.5 yrs

Government finances

State revenue, expenditure, and federal aid flows per capita.

State revenue per capita

$6,820

State expenditure per capita

$9,680

Federal aid per capita

$3,480

Education

K-12 spending and outcomes.

Per-pupil K-12 spending

$16,120

HS graduation rate

87%

Housing market

Rent, ownership, and affordability indicators.

Median rent

$1,260/mo

Homeownership rate

65.7%

Housing cost burden

48.2%

Political & demographic

Voting patterns, migration, and projected growth.

2020 margin (Biden–Trump)

+4.5 pp

Net domestic migration

0.0 per 1k

Projected growth 2025–35

Methodology

Neutral, assumptions-first notes for interpreting the synthetic estimates.

Data sources

Core benefits: CMS/MACPAC, USDA FNS, SSA, HUD, ACF (FY 2023). Supplemental: SSA OASDI, CMS Medicare, VA GDX, IRS SOI EITC/CTC. Taxes: IRS SOI state and county files (TY 2022), Tax Foundation (FY 2022). Geography/context: Census ACS 2023, CBSA county crosswalk, BEA, BLS, CDC, NCES.

Included direct benefits

Core model includes Medicaid, SNAP, housing, cash welfare, SSI, ACA subsidies, and education subsidies. Supplemental panel adds Social Security, Medicare, VA benefits, and refundable tax credits (EITC/CTC).

Excluded public spending

General defense, transportation, and broad public goods are excluded from direct benefits. Federal contracts and grants are shown separately in the supplemental section.

Population scope

Values are per-adult (18+) annual averages for all adults, spread across the entire population, not just program participants.

Contextual indicators

Economic, health, education, housing, and demographic indicators provide context for interpreting fiscal data. Regional Price Parities adjust for purchasing power differences across states.

Confidence note

Approximate 95% intervals (survey-style relative margins) are shown for core fiscal totals: wider for counties, narrower for states and national figures. County-level values are modeled from state program baselines using Census county characteristics; metro values aggregate county inputs across official CBSA counties. Suitable for comparison and exploration, not individual-level predictions.

Context

Interpretive summary for the currently visible geography.

Use the national summary as the base benchmark. From here you can drill into states, then county-level detail, while keeping the same metric and policy scenario active.